Check Your Bias

The inevitability of unlikely events

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Jamie McIntyre
Jamie McIntyre joined the Washington Examiner 2016, as Senior Writer, Defense and National Security. His newsletter, “Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense” goes out each weekday morning to tens of thousands of national security professional and opinion leaders. An internationally-known journalist with more than 40 years experience, McIntyre served as CNN’s Military Affairs and Senior Pentagon Correspondent from 1992-2008, and Al Jazeera America’s National Security correspondent from 2014-2016. McIntyre began his career in radio in 1976 at WTOP, the all-news station in Washington, and also was a newscaster for NPR’s flagship news program "All Things Considered" from 2011-2014. McIntyre holds B.S. In Broadcasting from the University of Florida, and a M.A. in Journalism from the University of Maryland, where he also serves as an adjunct instructor.
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Cognitive Bias

  • Systematic thinking errors

Conspiratorial Thinking

  • The mother of all biases
  • Sept. 11 Truthers/Conspiratorial Thinking

Correlation ≠ Causation

  • Correlation/Causation

Coincidence

  • The inevitability of unlikely events

Selection Factors/Results

  • Confusing selection factors with results

Clustering

  • We see patterns everywhere

Foresight Illusion

  • Beware false prophets!

Hindsight

  • In retrospect it was so obvious.

Intuitive vs Rational Thinking

  • When your gut speaks...

Overconfidence/Intuition

  • I'm above average, aren't you?

Nicknames

  • Why "Crooked Hillary" and "Pocahontas" change our perceptions

Group Think

  • Everybody else can't be wrong.

Availability Bias

  • Things that readily come to mind skew our judgment...

Outcome Bias

  • Never judge a decision by its outcome

Checklist

  • Ask yourself these questions

Further Reading

  • Dig deeper, Learn more
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